Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 4.099936 4.818192 5.613412 6.557476 7.645958 8.859811 10.314247
2025-08-31 2.881237 3.810025 4.951541 6.450095 8.357089 10.693541 13.762786
2025-09-07 2.267520 3.309585 4.706087 6.696241 9.437823 13.056523 18.164267
2025-09-14 1.792894 2.852463 4.382904 6.722557 10.168713 15.008796 22.257640
2025-09-21 1.455969 2.501655 4.115635 6.739483 10.834906 16.901305 26.455910
2025-09-28 1.204838 2.220821 3.886174 6.747247 11.449191 18.748434 30.762215
2025-10-05 1.117329 2.187190 4.032923 7.355094 13.055364 22.255596 37.957921
2025-10-12 0.986110 2.047324 3.971551 7.594284 14.072362 24.922350 44.087091
2025-10-19 0.877012 1.924931 3.915991 7.825098 15.087779 27.673374 50.613189
2025-10-26 0.762014 1.766817 3.765530 7.853286 15.734139 29.845697 56.351610
2025-11-02 0.638609 1.565454 3.496414 7.610668 15.840266 31.061837 60.511592
2025-11-09 0.523489 1.357486 3.177661 7.217545 15.598790 31.603839 63.480983
2025-11-16 0.447138 1.224894 3.000586 7.099933 15.906945 33.244031 68.736425
2025-11-23 0.385676 1.115180 2.855857 7.031176 16.309544 35.116047 74.642853
2025-11-30 0.355190 1.077494 2.869464 7.314676 17.488228 38.638947 84.115432
2025-12-07 0.314338 1.002697 2.781195 7.349214 18.126082 41.121430 91.726196
2025-12-14 0.278392 0.933072 2.693154 7.369691 18.731774 43.591310 99.532734
2025-12-21 0.246781 0.868472 2.606304 7.378859 19.309672 46.053155 107.539701
2025-12-28 0.245134 0.895368 2.767563 8.039042 21.502684 52.234110 124.030632
2026-01-04 0.227657 0.867876 2.774735 8.298728 22.754810 56.434935 136.555073
2026-01-11 0.211450 0.840757 2.778346 8.549213 24.012318 60.760013 149.713933
2026-01-18 0.190085 0.790572 2.705783 8.579809 24.715710 63.868187 160.386299
2026-01-25 0.163293 0.713676 2.538306 8.316560 24.623985 65.092952 166.836316